By Correspondent Team
Deputy President Kithure Kindiki had vowed to hand his predecessor Rigathi Gachagua a crushing political defeat in the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election following the death of MP David Kiaraho. However, the election results told a different story, delivering a major victory to Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP).
Results announced by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) on July 17, 2026, showed DCP candidate Sammy Kamau Ngotho winning the seat in a landslide after securing 35,440 votes, representing about 85 percent of all ballots cast. His closest rival, United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate Muchina Nyaga, garnered only 5,450 votes.
Political analysts argue that the outcome was shaped months before official campaigning began.
During a visit to Meru in April, Deputy President Kindiki declared that the government would politically confront and defeat Gachagua. The former Deputy President responded by reminding him that, according to Kikuyu traditions, political campaigns should not begin before a deceased person has been buried.
Chairman of the Kikuyu Council of Elders, Wachira Kiago, believes that response significantly influenced public opinion.
“Gachagua made the government appear as though it was celebrating the death of the MP to create an opportunity for an election. In our culture, the deceased must be accorded the highest respect,” Kiago said.
During the funeral of the late MP David Kiaraho, Gachagua emerged as the central political figure. He addressed mourners for longer than President William Ruto, sharply criticized the government, and even led a choir performance that entertained those in attendance.
Political analyst Malila Munywoki says the opposition effectively turned the funeral into the beginning of its campaign while the government was still focused on mourning.
Another defining moment came when Nyandarua Senator John Methu publicly told President Ruto that while he respected him as Commander-in-Chief, he was not afraid of him.
“That was the moment the political battle officially began,” Munywoki said.
Following the victory, Gachagua praised Senator Methu for his role in leading the campaign.
“I promised to mentor a new generation of leaders. I entrusted John Methu and Wanjiku Muhia with leading this campaign to test their leadership. Today, I can confidently say John Methu has matured into a capable leader,” Gachagua said.
Gachagua later appointed Methu as the interim Secretary-General of the DCP.
Political analyst John Okumu argues that the appointment strengthened the party’s appeal among Nyandarua residents.
“DCP came to be viewed as Nyandarua’s own party. Supporting Methu became synonymous with defending the county’s interests,” he said.
Gachagua also framed Nyandarua as the cradle of Kenya’s liberation struggle and claimed the Mount Kenya region had been sidelined by the government it helped elect in 2022.
According to political analyst Herman Manyora, that message successfully portrayed President Ruto as the region’s principal political opponent.
“He convinced many voters that the by-election represented a struggle for political liberation after what they perceived as betrayal,” Manyora said.
Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri admitted that the government entered the race from a position of weakness.
“It is true we began with only about nine percent support. For nearly 20 months, Gachagua had been criticizing the government almost daily. We were playing catch-up from the very beginning,” Kiunjuri said.
Nevertheless, he defended UDA’s decision to field a candidate, arguing that the party increased its support from roughly nine percent to 13 percent and could continue narrowing the gap ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Political scientist Prof. Peter Kagwanja, however, offered a different assessment, urging the government to treat the Ol Kalou outcome as a serious warning.
“It is time to face reality. Mount Kenya appears to have undergone a significant political shift and shows little sign of reversing course. If I were advising President Ruto, I would tell him that his re-election strategy cannot rely solely on votes from the Mount Kenya region,” Kagwanja said.
The campaign was also marked by enormous spending by both sides.
Former Economic Adviser Moses Kuria alleged that the government had allocated more than KSh10 billion for development projects and campaign-related activities during the by-election period.
Nakuru East MP David Gikaria also claimed that more than KSh1.2 million was being spent every day in each ward on voter outreach activities.
On the opposition side, a source close to the DCP campaign team alleged that Gachagua personally spent approximately KSh2 million daily. According to the source, Gachagua contributed more than KSh150 million, while the DCP candidate and other supporters raised an additional KSh180 million.
Kipipiri MP Wanjiku Muhia attributed the party’s success to strong grassroots coordination, particularly through Members of County Assembly (MCAs).
“We had one message of liberation. We told voters that the money and gifts they received were simply their own resources being returned to them,” she said.
She added that DCP effectively used vernacular radio stations and social media platforms to spread its campaign message across the constituency.
Senator Methu revealed that although Gachagua was not always visible at campaign rallies, he remained deeply involved behind the scenes. He regularly called voters directly during public meetings and guided the campaign’s messaging from behind the scenes.
Methu further claimed that Gachagua’s continued criticism of the IEBC and security agencies over allegations involving the use of hired gangs kept the Ol Kalou by-election under intense national scrutiny throughout the campaign period.
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